USDA estimates second-best world grain harvest 2014/15
The U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) monthly crop estimates provide a first preview of the harvest year 2014/15 in the may issue. Fundamentals are the growing statistics and assumptions to the Flächenerträgen on the basis of trend and experience. This shows already, thats still a considerable uncertainty in the interpretation of the results to take into account.
The world grain harvest without rice is to 1,954 million tonnes (previous year 1,983 million tonnes) estimated. The harvested area was again slightly less than 542 million hectares (previous year 541 million ha) extended. A repeat of the high level of income by 2013 with an average 3.7 t / ha is not expected, instead it is now 3.6 t / ha. This figure is still far above the 7-year-old average of 3.3 t / ha.
The grain consumption climbs with 1,947 million tonnes to a record level (previous year 1,937 million tons). The increase is for the most part in the food sector, only with distance follow the direct human consumption and industrial consumption.
The USDA calculated a restocking of 8 million tonnes to 398 million tonnes at the end of the marketing year. A 20.4% closing stock measured in consumption indicated a good average supply situation for 2014/15.
In the case of the global wheat harvest, the result looks much less favourable. Slightly increased harvested area assumes a lower level of income compared with the previous year. The world harvest is on 697 million tonnes (previous year 714 million tonnes) significantly less valued. The miserable prospects of the U.S. wheat crop (- 7 million tonnes or 12%) as a result of dry damage and Auswinterungs - as well as a gradation of the Canadian bumper wheat crop 2013 to 10 million tonnes at normal level by 28 million tonnes have considerable shares it. In some other areas will charge increased with falling results.
The consumption of wheat with 696 million tonnes (previous year 703 Mio.t) is located just below the current production of the year 2014/15. There remains a computational restocking by 1 million tons to 187 million tonnes at the end of the year. The supply ratio stock to use ratio improves with 26.8% on a good average value. The unmodified closing stock at the main exporting countries, is important for the formation of prices for these delivery if necessary.
The other cereals sector with a focus on corn is on a crop of 1,257 million tonnes (previous year 1,269 million tonnes) estimated. Of the maize crop alone is nearly 980 million metric tons. The consumption will be 1,250 million tonnes (previous year 1,235 million tonnes) estimated, so that a population increase from approximately 7 million to 210 million tons is possible. Supply stock to use ratio increasing to 16.7% in the good midfield. Also in this case is to determine the largest exporting countries to expel a smaller closing stock compared to the previous year.
The American stock exchanges reacted with some sensitive course corrections. Corn prices showed a clear downward trend, the wheat is partially followed. The USDA estimated for US producer prices a range of 6.65 up $7.95 per bushel wheat (17.70 up 21.17 €/ dt) the average of the year 2014/15. In the case of maize prices were paying 3.85-$4.55 called per bushel (10.97 to 12,96 €/ dt). in Paris, the price of wheat remained largely unchanged.
The USDA estimate has left largely ignore a number of current risks, because there are no reliable tangible data. The current U.S. corn planting delays have led other areas cuts or reductions of Flächenerträge. The weather phenomenon El Nino was also out of consideration. Average harvest results were subordinated despite political and financial instability for the countries of the Black Sea. Due to drought and disease-related losses at the livestock remained largely out of approach. This and more today not predictable corrections are left to the following estimates.
