- GDT auction in January 2022: on average + 0.3%
The 1st Jan. 2022 auction of Global Dairy Trade (GDT) closed with a slightly positive average result at the beginning of the year. Surcharges for butter and skimmed milk powder made a significant contribution to the result. The throughput volumes remained consistently high, but fell well below the previous year's values. Whole milk powder (VMP) with an auction share of 55% was able to maintain its price level with a zero round to the pre-auction. In the early delivery months, some surcharges were even achieved. China's demand dominates this sub-market. The absolute prices stabilize at $ 3,866 / t. Skimmed milk powder (MMP) (auction share 25%) continues the recent price increases with +1%. The prices continue to climb at the high price level of the last 5 years. The months of March + April 22 were in high demand. The absolute MMP prices at $ 3,773 / t remain above the EEX exchange rates ($ 3,672 / t) and the USA ($ 3,477 / t).Pure butter prices (share 10%) had to give up the price improvement of the pre-auction with -0.7%. Only the February 22nd date could score with + 2.8% surcharge. The average product price fell slightly to $ 6,668 / t, but remained at a comparatively high level in the price segment of the last 5 years. Normal butter (proportion of 8%) is the upward development of the Vorauktionen continued with an average of 0.3%. All delivery dates except June 22 remain in the slight plus range. The absolute butter price continues to rise at $ 5,868 / t and has reached highs in the last 5 years. EEX Leipzig is quoted at $ 6,188 / t and the Chicago rates are at $ 4,520 / t. The upward trend in international prices for dairy products , which has existed since Aug. 21, has to pay a little tribute to the turn of the year. The 10-year price index of the GDT auctions can just hold its own. Nevertheless, the weighted average prices of dairy products are above average compared to previous years.Milk price cycle A multi-year analysis of the milk price development reveals the fundamental mechanisms in the market. This reveals the typical milk price cycle. After several years of low prices from 2018 to 2020, an upswing phase is now recognizable again. Based on what we know about the fundamental data to date, the development should continue in 2022. The forward rates on the international stock exchanges point in the same direction.
