EU-COM forecast, EU cereals market 2019/20: 307.5 million t or + 1.65% over 5-year average In its most recent March issue, the EU Commission estimates the grain harvest 2019/20 at 307.5 million. t. The drought-induced extremely weak previous year with 290.5 million t is not very suitable as a benchmark. Compared with the 5-year average , the forecast is 1.65% above the multi-year average, but still remains within the range of the estimation error. The result comes from a slightly higher acreage, but mainly due to higher yield expectations of 5.5 t / ha . The wheat harvest 2019/20 is still estimated at 148.4 million t as against the 5-year average. In the previous year, 137.4 million t were achieved. With slightly increased cultivated area, a yield of 5.7 t / ha is expected. The barley harvest estimates the EU-COM to a good average of 60.3 million t compared to the 5-year average. In contrast, the corn harvest should reach well above average 68.4 million t.The other so-called small cereals are all just above average. The present estimate is based on relatively reliable data on the acreage . The revenue assumptions n are based on trend updates from past developments. The yields per hectare are however strongly weather dependent . Therefore, there are still significant risks until the crop is harvested. On the consumption side , a rather small amount amounting to 286.7 million t . predicted in comparison to the previous year. The background is lower feed quantities because livestock has decreased. In the other areas of use remain largely constant. The export is predicted to be 38.4 million tonnes in 2019/20, which is within the 5-year average. In the weak previous year it was only 29.6 million tons, which are not only related to their own low harvest, but in the first line with the strong and low-cost competing offer from the Black Sea countries with a focus on Russia.The grain balance for 2019/20 provides an arithmetic increase in inventories from 47 to 52 million tonnes. Such an order of magnitude signals an above-average supply balance 2019/20. However, such an interpretation is still subject to considerable reservations, in particular with regard to weather-dependent earnings development and incalculable exports. Especially the output of the Brexit raises many unanswered questions. The later forward prices on the Paris stock exchange initially show a usual crop weakness with wheat prices of around 175 € / t for the post-harvest months, but these have clear signs of recovery in the further course of the grain year. The previous year's level of € 180 / t and above is again targeted.
