EU-COM preview of the pork market in 2021: less production and less export. The EU Commission (EU COM) estimates the production of pork in 2021 at 22.6 million t, which is another 1% lower than in the previous year. The decrease is the result of larger falls in production in some major Member States relative to increases in other countries. Growth is expected in Spain, Denmark and Poland in particular, while declines are forecast in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands in particular. The Covid pandemic, with adverse effects in the slaughter and processing area, and the ASF wild boar finds on German soil, with the result of export bans, play a price-determining role. The ASF-related ban on German pork exports to third Asian countries is a particularly severe blow. This means that a larger quantity of meat will necessarily have to be accommodated in the internal market.To make matters worse, the typical third country export goods in the EU internal market are difficult to sell. The EU-COM estimates a decline in exports in the order of 10% to only 3.8 million t. The latest USDA estimate comes to a similar conclusion. The consequence is continued price pressure. The slight increase in domestic consumption from 18.8 to 18.95 million t only brings limited relief. The level of self-sufficiency will decrease from 122% in the previous year to 120% in 2021. The main priority is to maintain the functionality of the slaughterhouses and processing plants in compliance with the Corona-related precautionary measures. A decisive relief comes from the negotiations on the recognition of the regionalization principle with third country importers. But to do this, it must first be proven that the ASF infections in the restricted areas are under control.This has not yet succeeded convincingly, even if one can point out that there has been no spread to domestic animals (so far).
