USDA corrects global pork production in 2020 In the latest July report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that global pork production in 2020 in the world's key production areas is just under 96 million t lower than in previous years. Compared to the starting year 2018 with the start of the ASP in China, production in the current year is 17 million t less. The main cause is African swine fever (ASP) , which has caused Chinese pork production to decline from 54.5 million tonnes to the current 36 million tonnes. ASP-related setbacks have also occurred in other Asian countries such as Vietnam, Laos, the Philippines and Korea. In contrast, pork production in the United States and Canada has increased by approx. 8% to a total of 15 million t and in Brazil by 7% to 4 million t. In the EU , production has 24 million t not significantly changed.As a result of the Covid pandemic, the changes compared to the previous year 2019 are somewhat smaller. A decrease of 6% is estimated for production in the main production regions. For China , a further year-on-year decrease of 15% to 36 million t is expected. The increases in the United States, Canada and Brazil are halved. Pork consumption in China has dropped from just under 56 million t (2017/18) to 40.3 million t this year. In the other large production areas, stagnation or a slight decline in consumption can be observed. The international pork trade has increased by more than 36% from 7.5 to 10.2 million tons since 2018. On the import side , China is at the forefront with an increase from 1.5 to today's 4.4 million tons . Japan has only slightly increased its imports to 1.5 million tons. The other importing countries show only slight increases in imports.On the export side , the EU is at the forefront with growth from 2.8 to 4.1 million t . Approx. 60% have been delivered to China. The USA will increase its exports from 2.6 to 3.4 million tons. Brazil increases pork exports from 0.7 to approx. 1 million tons and Canada increases exports from 1.3 to 1.45 million tons . In all cases, the increased Chinese imports can be named as the cause. China's dominant influence on the international meat trade is not limited to pork, but also extends to the beef and poultry markets. Imports to China / HK will reach approx. 3 million tons of beef and almost 1 million tons of poultry . More fish and other protein carriers are also used to supply protein . However, full coverage of requirements is still not achieved.The worldwide scarce supply situation in connection with the Covid pandemic leads to extreme price differences. In China , the current average producer price for pigs is the equivalent of € 5.50 / kg . In contrast, the US prices are quoted below the value of € 0.60 / kg . Brazil's pig prices fluctuate around the equivalent of 1 € / kg . In Germany / EU , coronavirus-related slaughterhouse closures have recently contributed to a massive drop in prices below € 1.50 / kg . The further outlook : China's increasing import needs will continue in the current year; the Covid pandemic in the United States and Brazil as well. Coronavirus infections are declining in China and other Asian countries; declining developments are also expected in the EU .Pig prices in China will remain high due to the scarcity. In the United States , prices remain low because the still increasing live supply is encountering limited slaughtering / processing capacities and domestic demand is falling due to falling incomes. In Germany / EU there is again potential for price increases if sufficient slaughtering / processing capacities are reopened and export options due to the reduced living supply.
