Large quantities of pork missing in China - 2020 supply even more dramatic According to recent estimates from several institutions in and outside China, Chinese pork production is estimated at 54 million tonnes from previous year's 40.5 million tonnes . Cause is the African swine fever (ASP) , an epidemic, the rd. 200 million pigs have fallen victim. There are no medications. Despite all efforts to import pork, the global quantities are not sufficient, the misuse of approx. 12 million t . The total world trade in pork amounts to only 8.5 million t. Alternatively, the Chinese resort to other protein carriers such as poultry, beef and fish. The attempt to produce this replacement itself encounters limits. In the case of beef, there is only a small concentration of dairy herds and cattle in low-yielding locations in the north, which is slow to mobilize.In the case of poultry , one avoids the bird flu because of reservations about certain human variants of the virus. Beef imports have quintupled in the last 3 years and now reach 1.6 million t. Relatively expensive beef qualifies against the background of pork prices of 5 to 6 € / kg. Beef is, unlike pork for a long time storable and transportable. The consumption of meat in China will reach its seasonal peak in the months ahead until the Chinese New Year begins in early February 2020. The government is putting all its inventories into the market to dampen inflationary prices. However, in the end, the Chinese will have to make noticeable cuts in their high meat consumption this year. Average pig prices have risen in recent months from € 2.50 to € 4.60 / kg .An end to the price increases is not yet in sight. Due to the highly decimated stocks of sows , it is expected that by 2020 , Chinese pork production will again be reduced to less than 35 million tonnes . Imports are expected to reach 4.5 million tonnes of pork, approx. 2.3 million t of beef and 1.5 million t of poultry meat are rising. A full compensation can not be achieved. For the further development one expects with 3 to 5 years , before one can assume again from an increasing domestic supply . In the meantime, new large-scale production structures are being set up that are less vulnerable to ASP than the previous backyard and small-scale holdings. Government subsidies are made abundantly available. However, one has to say that the willingness to invest is currently still very reserved, because the risk of reinfection is still very large.
