2023: China Slows Pork Production Growth The US Department of State's Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) published a preview of China's 2023 pork market in its Sep 2022 issue. The Chinese data material was processed by the US embassy in Beijing, among others. Chinese pork production is expected to increase to around 52 million tons in 2023 (previous year: 51 million tons). Although the slaughter numbers are increasing, the average slaughter weights are expected to fall due to the high feed costs. Pork consumption is expected to fall slightly in 2023 compared to the previous year to 53.7 million tons. The main reasons are seen in the reluctance to consume due to high prices and weak income development as a result of the economic downturn. An import volume of 1.85 million t is forecast to cover demand. That is again less than in 2021 with 2.15 million t and far away from the import figures of more than 5.5 million t in 2020 to 2.5 million t.The main reason is the increased prices of the supplier countries in South America. Pig producer prices are currently hovering around 21 RMB per kg. (just over €4/kg). The forward rates on the Dalian Stock Exchange signal a firm price trend until the consumption-intensive month of Jan 2023 (Chinese New Year). For the delivery months May to July 2023, an average of 19.35 RMB/kg is traded (approx. 3.75 €/kg). The break -even point is estimated at 17.5 RMB/kg (approx. 3.35 €/kg) on average. A 25 kg piglet is currently (Sep.-22) valued at 45 RMB/kg (equivalent to approx. 160 €/animal )
