COCERAL further reduces the EU-28 grain harvest to 295.5 million t, for the EU-27 276 million t apply. The umbrella association of European grain and oilseed traders (COCERAL) estimates the EU-28 grain harvest in its August issue -5% lower to 295.5 million t compared to the previous year. With a reduced cultivation area, the lower yield of 57.7 dt / ha on average (previous year 61.4 dt / ha) makes a significant contribution to the result. Wheat production , in particular, was -12% lower, while barley and maize closed little changed compared to the previous year. The results vary greatly in the individual regions. Great harvest losses of -24% are recorded for Great Britain . The cause is both a considerable drop in cultivation due to the difficult autumn cultivation and poor yields, which have fallen from 79 dt / ha in the previous year to just under 65 dt / ha. Britain becomes a net importer of wheat, while barley is in excess.The impending no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020 is unsettling the answer to the question of possible supplier countries (France or the USA or Russia). -16% reduction in harvesting the largest EU-growing region, France has experienced a significant setback. In addition to a smaller cultivation area, the average yield, which is almost 12 dt / ha lower, made a significant contribution to the result. This year's wheat harvest falls from 40 million t in the previous year to less than 30 million t. The corn harvest only increases by 2.5 million t. French wheat exports will in any case be smaller, despite some surprising purchases by China. For the south-eastern European countries Romania and Bulgaria , COCERAL estimates -6.6% and -5.5 % lower results. In the case of larger cultivated areas, considerable reductions in yield of 4 to 6 dt / ha are largely responsible for the predominant maize cultivation. Italy's harvest is 3.9% below the previous year's level.This increases the already existing import requirement again. However, difficulties are to be expected under corona conditions. In the Scandinavian countries, highly contrasting developments can be observed. While the Swedes are expecting a harvest loss of - 9.9% , the result for Finland is an increase of 14% . After a dry previous year, Spain found favorable conditions for an above-average harvest with an increase of 26% this year due to a rainy spring. The usual grain imports are expected to drop from 16 to 12 mln t. For Germany , COCERAL estimates an insignificant crop growth of + 0.1% compared to the comparatively weak previous year. Nevertheless, the result remains below the multi-year average. In contrast, Poland achieved significant growth with a growth of 5.6% .With a slightly reduced cultivation area, the area yield increases to an above-average high 40.5 dt / ha. After Germany, Poland is the world's second largest rye producer with price-suppressing surpluses this year. Assuming a slight decrease in consumption compared to the previous year of approx. 261 million t , which results in a supply figure of 18.7% final inventory for consumption (previous years: between 11.6 and 16.7%). The arithmetic reserves are sufficient for 68 days. The slightly improved supply figures are caused by the low- ranking export opportunities . The reasons are the increasing exports of Russia and Ukraine as well as the high value of the euro, which makes EU exports less competitive and imports cheaper. For the EU area excluding Great Britain , COCERAL estimates the harvest by -3.4% to just under 276.2 million t. This means that COCERAL is still below previous forecasts by other estimation institutes.
