Coceral re-estimates EU grain harvest 2019: 301 million t = 5-year average The European Cereal and Oilseed Trade Federation (COCERAL) estimated the EU grain harvest at 301 million t in its May issue. The basis is a cultivated area of 55.6 million ha and a yield forecast of 54.1 dt / ha. Even the estimate of the March issue was at a similar level. By contrast, the EU Commission's most recent EU crop estimate came to a result of approx. 312.2 million t. The basis was a cultivated area of 55.96 million ha and a yield forecast of 60 dt / ha. Different collection and estimation procedures inevitably lead to different results, which make immediate comparability difficult. A comparative assessment of the estimates makes more sense, if you consult the changes of the respective results. The COCERAL estimate with its method concludes that the EU harvest of 2019 at + 0.04% is just at the level of a 5-year average.The EU-KOM estimate, with its estimation method, provides an increase of +1.6% in its own 5-year average. The EU COM estimate is dated 25 April 2019, while the Coceral estimate is dated 21 May 2019 . In the meantime, the latest information on yield formation should be more strongly included in the COCERAL estimate. Since an estimate always involves a certain lead time, the most recent developments in terms of current rainfall, with their positive and negative effects, are still out of line. According to the current state of knowledge , this means that the grain harvest in 2019 will be on a good to slightly above 5-year average . The probability of a record harvest (330 million tons) as in 2014. is even lower than the repetition of a low harvest (290 million).t) As in the previous year Nevertheless, one should keep an eye on the weather-related influencing factors, especially in the imminent decisive earnings generation phase in the month of June and the harvest conditions in July. There is still considerable risk potential!
