Competition for Chinese pork imports - EU ahead China will export 3 million tonnes of pork during the year 2019. Competent supplier countries are the EU, USA, Canada and Brazil. According to preliminary results, 1.95 million tonnes are expected to come from EU Member States. Germany and Spain are each with 0.5 million t. The remaining third share is Holland, Denmark France, Belgium, Ireland and Great Britain. From the USA, a Chinese import volume of approx. 0.4 million t. However, the Americans are struggling because there are two obstacles to overcome. On the one hand there is the use of the growth promoter Ractopamin, which is not approved in China, and on the other the high punitive tariffs, which are still the subject of political discussions in the trade conflict between the two states. After initial euphoria in the summer months, US shipments are in Sep. and Oct. fell back again. At the low US prices of the equivalent of 1 € / kg it can not be. By contrast, EU exports have risen sharply despite steadily rising EU prices. The increase of 150.000 t in the month of June at approx. 250,000 t in the month of Sep. 19 shows that the Chinese priorities are clearly in favor of the EU. After a temporary Chinese import stop due to political differences Canada is allowed to deliver again. The North American country has an export potential of approx. 1.2 million t. Of this, an estimated 0.35 million tonnes could make their way to China. Canadian prices are currently slightly above US prices, but there is currently a big advantage in a weak Canadian currency. Brazil still has an export potential of 0.9 million t in 2019. After Russia's failure as a sales area for approx. 0.25 million tons, China is increasingly in the foreground. In Brazil, one expects an export volume to China, which can reach the order of 0.35 million t. The previous growth rates are over 33%: The Brazilian pork prices fluctuate currently depending on the exchange rate by the order of the equivalent of € 1.45 / kg. For the year 2020 further Chinese import increases are expected.
