Updated harvest estimates: IGC World: Wheat unchanged - Corn lower - COCERAL-EU-27: Less grain In its latest September estimate, the International Grains Council (IGC ) forecasts a largely constant high global wheat supply with a slight increase in stocks. Weaker harvests in the EU and the USA are more than offset by higher results in Russia and Australia . In contrast, the global corn harvest will be reduced to 1,160 million t. The main reason is the reduction in the US corn estimate to just 376 million t compared to the previous month. In the previous year, the US harvest was a weak 346 million tons. However, increasing domestic consumption and exports ensure that the inventory build-up remains within the limits of 63 million t (previous year 57 million t).The global corn supply in 2020/21 has been shaped by a reduction in stocks for several years in a row, which is primarily taking place in China. Chinese corn imports have increased. Different estimation results are available for the EU maize harvest . The IGC and the EU Commission are forecasting the result at an already reduced 67 million t (previous year 68 million t). The umbrella association of European grain and oilseed traders (COCERAL) , however, only comes to 62.7 million t in its latest estimate. COCERAL is cutting the entire EU-28 grain harvest from last year's 312.4 to this year's 293.6 million t. The greatest crop losses occurred in France (-18%) , Great Britain (-24%), Bulgaria (-22%) and Romania (-28%) . The reduction in the harvest in Germany remains modest.On the other hand, Spain brought in a higher harvest of around 30% compared to the extremely weak previous year. This year's Spanish import demand is correspondingly low. The increase in production in the Baltic states with +20 to 60% (Lithuania) is also remarkable. Poland also threshed a 6% higher harvest with a focus on rye and wheat. The wheat prices on the Chicago stock exchange are falling again after a short period of increase, while in Paris stable prices above the 190 € / t mark are being traded. The corn prices in Chicago show clear upward tendencies while in Paris the prices show slight weaknesses. The future outlook: The forward rates for the coming months up to the first half of 2021 show, as before, slight but steady increases in prices.
