DRV sets 2nd harvest estimate for 2020 lower - precipitation is missing The German Raiffeisenverband (DRV) has slightly reduced the German grain harvest in 2020 compared to the previous month in its 2nd estimate. The total result is estimated at 45 million t and is therefore only slightly above the average of the past 5 years. The forecast is based on the acreage of the winter seeds of the stat. Federal Office as of Dec. 2019, residual area estimates for summer crops and yield forecasts by the DRV. The total area is 2.5% smaller than in the previous year and is 6.21 million ha. The estimated average yields of 72.5 dt / ha are 4.3% above the weak result of the previous year. Against the background of a lack of precipitation, the yield assumptions of the previous month's estimate were withdrawn. The total wheat harvest is expected to be 1.4% below the previous year at 22.7 million t.The decisive factor is the 6.1% smaller acreage, which cannot be offset by 4.9% higher yield assumptions. Due to the difficult conditions of autumn sowing in 2019, the summer wheat area is expected to double, but still only makes up just under 20% of the total wheat area. The rye cultivation was expanded by 5.4%. The DRV estimates a yield of 56.9 dt / ha compared to 50.9 dt / ha in the previous year. This translates into an almost 18% higher rye harvest in 2020. At 3.8 million tonnes, German rye production reached an order of magnitude as most recently in 2014. A decrease in the area under cultivation for triticale by almost 4% is partly due to higher yield expectations 3% balanced. The total barley harvest should remain unchanged from the previous year at 11.6 million tons . The DRV assumes that winter barley quantities will be somewhat lower due to the area, which will be compensated for by increasing summer barley production.The DRV expects an almost 12% higher maize harvest in the order of 4.1 million t . The result is caused by increasing acreage, which remains as a residual size of the area used. The DRV assumes average yields of 92 dt / ha . The upcoming harvest is gaining increasing attention among market participants. In addition to the uncertain weather development , ASP and COVID cause great uncertainty with regard to further market and price developments.
