Mar. 2023 DRV: first harvest estimate 2023 The German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) has undertaken a first attempt to estimate the 2023 harvest. The bases are those of the Stat. Federal Office determined areas under cultivation for winter crops as well as DRV estimates of the remaining areas and expected yields. The result is a grain harvest in 2023 of 42.67 million t (previous year 43.45 million t) and is in the range of a five-year average. The total area under cultivation of 5.95 million ha has further decreased by 2.4% compared to the previous year; the earnings expectations are assumed to be within the multi-year average. With a cultivation area of around 2.9 million hectares, wheat determines the harvest result to a significant extent. For 2023 the stat. Federal Office determined a 2.5% lower area than in the previous year. With the help of average area yields, the wheat harvest is expected to decrease by 2.3% compared to the previous year. Barley , the second-biggest fruit, is increasingly being cultivated on an increased acreage of just under 1.6 million hectares.This is presumably based on the assessment of a lower sensitivity to drought due to the early ripening. Nevertheless, the DRV does not expect the above-average earnings of the previous year. In a 5-year comparison, the barley harvest is expected to be above average. The area under rye was increased by +4.3% compared to the previous year. In connection with good average yield expectations, a rye harvest of 3.3 million t (previous year 3.1 million t) is forecast. Rye is also considered to be drought tolerant. On the other hand, the future corn acreage will be set back by 11% due to the bad experience in the previous year. However, an average yield expected over several years should reach the same harvest volume as in the previous year. The 2023 oat harvest is expected to be almost 22% smaller, mainly due to the area but also due to the yield. The result is estimated at almost 0.6 million t. The DRV estimate provides a first rough orientation of the harvest expectations.Although the dangers of hibernation are over, the weather developments in the coming months can still cause significant changes, especially in yields. Harvests from earlier years of around 50 million tons are relatively unlikely. Neither the area under cultivation nor the yield expectations due to the climatic conditions and the fertilizer costs are sufficient for this.
