DRV estimates the German grain harvest in 2021 slightly higher than in the previous month In its latest April 2021 edition, the German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) raised the German grain harvest in 2021 to around 44 million t compared to the March estimate. The main reason is an increased expectation of earnings due to the previous growth conditions. However, it is acknowledged that the low temperatures have delayed development in recent weeks. As a result, the time of maturity should be postponed by a few weeks. In addition, there are other weather risks to be considered in the remaining time up to the harvest date, especially in the grain filling phase. The wheat harvest, with a share of more than 50% of German grain production, is expected to increase by + 2.2% due to the area alone, assuming the expected yield remains the same. In contrast, the cultivation of barley was reduced by -2.5%. The DRV estimates, however, that the area yields are 4.7% higher than in the critical previous year.The volume increase is estimated at + 2% . Despite an expected increase in cultivation of 1.5%, the DRV is assuming a 3.1% smaller maize harvest due to lower yield expectations of -4.5%. The drop of an estimated -8.5% for oats is striking. The main reason is the 7.5% smaller cultivation area. This means that the supply of oats in Germany will become even more scarce. Overall, the estimate remains in the middle of previous harvests . In view of the low overburden stocks, a moderate supply situation is to be expected in 2021/22. The DRV estimated the German rapeseed harvest to be slightly higher at 3.57 million t (previous year 3.51 million t). The area yield is expected to fall -1.7% below the previous year. On the other hand, the area under cultivation has increased by + 2.5% .The rapeseed prices remain at an above-average high level.
