Preview of the quarterly EU battle figures 2014
The Advisory Group at the European Commission has released a preview on the EU battle figures for the rest of the year 2014 mid May 2014.
Then the slaughter should the year 2014 to -1.4% lower than in the previous year. taking together the last 3 years from 2012, is with a decline of around-4% assumed. without the Russian import barriers would have resulted in far higher than average pork prices offer in such a development.
The expired I. quarter 2014 has already proven a fall-battle of -2,3% brought. You can get this number with the weekly reports of the slaughterhouses in a good match.
for the second quarter, half the actual messages exists only. The extrapolation from the Habitat but suggests, the reduced decline by -1.3% can be expected. At the same time is to be expected as far as the weather has played a livelier demand due to the start of the barbecue season.
For the third quarter, the experts estimate only a drop in the slaughter on
-0.7%. Should the seasonal meat demand July reasonably hang in the summer months until Sept 2014, is to be expected with any large market pressure.
For the 4th quarter Oct 2014 due to the development of stock market experts expect a further acceleration of the battle number cuts to - 1.2%.
What impact will have this estimated supply development on pork prices, depends on the future design of the Russian import ban. You will have to assume for the time being, that so quickly no agreement due to the link with the Ukraine crisis can be expected. The previously usual full delivery will most likely won't be included even in the event of an agreement, because in the meantime other contracts are closed. , More opportunities could exist at the end of the year because there is an increased need for meat in the run-up to the Christmas holidays, which could let grow the understanding on both sides. Russian pig prices currently €3.60 happy kg SG while producers, but not consumers.
The development of weather will occupy a considerable influence. Depending on the flow of goods in direction of barbecue consumption is to calculate different price developments.
When all uncertainty about future price developments, but can hold, that market pressure at least by the supply side is comparatively modest.
