COCERAL: EU harvest 2019 estimated at 5 year average The European Cereal and Oilseed Trade Association (COCERAL) has published an initial estimate of the upcoming 2019 EU grain harvest in each Member State. After last year's dry year, a 7% higher EU total harvest is predicted. The basis is a slightly reduced cultivation area, which is overcompensated by higher average area yields. The result of approx. 300 million t (previous year 280 million t) almost exactly matches the 5-year average . Average results in the 5-year average are also found for the individual EU member states . But the year-on-year comparisons vary greatly, depending on whether the region was favored or affected by the weather in 2018.For Germany , a year-on-year increase of + 28.5% is forecast. At 45 million t , the result is on a multi-year average. In France and the United Kingdom , the rates of increase are 9.5% each. Spain faces this with -15.6% . For the Iberian Peninsula 2018 was a record harvest year. According to COCERAL this should not be repeated so quickly. Average is announced Even in some other countries, such as Romania and Italy , harvests are expected to fall short of the good previous year but still be on a 5-year average. If the prognosis is correct, then a better but not exceptionally high supply situation can be expected. Low overlay stocks ensure that the supply is not as high as the harvest results promise.In addition, domestic consumption will rise as the high import demand of the current year will decline. Exports should also rise to multi-year average levels again. However, there are still some uncertainties to be noted: The mild winter and the early start of vegetation have, in addition to their advantages of low Auswinterungsschäden but also their dark side in the form of high infection pressure . The much too low rainfall could not fill the groundwater supply. The risk remains high if in the coming months the rainfall does not bring the necessary precipitation to provide sufficient moisture during the grain formation phase . Otherwise, the yield assumptions are much weaker. The further development will lead to new assessments.
