EU pork market 2020: E EU-COM forecasts increasing production, falling consumption and growing exports In its latest short-term forecast , the EU Commission estimates that EU pork production in the EU will increase by +1.5% yoy. By far the largest share of the production growth will take place in Spain . The Iberian Peninsula benefits from low construction costs and environmental regulations as well as an efficiently functioning integrated organization system. The increasing Spanish export to China is added as an additional driving factor. In the broader perspective, the Spaniards expect increasing sales opportunities to Japan if, as a result of the free trade agreement with the EU, the high Japanese import duties are reduced year by year. The Iberians are also targeting the increasingly deficient Eastern European market. In most other EU Member States, the readiness to recharge is hampered by environmental regulations, animal husbandry regulations and African swine fever.In these countries, recent stock reductions in sow husbandry point to limited, sometimes significantly declining production trends. In Germany , pig farming is under public pressure in the future for permissible animal husbandry methods, new fertilization regulations and the risk of ASP. The development of livestock so far points to a standstill or even a step backwards, although in view of the price relations there is good profitability in pig farming. EU pork consumption is expected to continue to decline in 2020. The per capita consumption drops from 32.5 to 31.6 kg. Only in Spain, with the help of holiday guests in summer, there is still increasing demand. With increasing production and falling domestic consumption, the EU self-sufficiency rate rises from 115 to 118%. The EU-COM estimates an increase in exports from the previous 3.2 to approx. 3.7 million t. in 2020. Of these, more than half will be delivered to China. In addition to slaughter by-products, exports of medium-value pork are increasing even more.The list of exporting countries is headed by Spain and Germany in second position. Then follow Holland, Denmark, Ireland and Great Britain with sometimes considerably smaller quantities. For 2020, persistently above-average pig prices are expected. The reason for this is the increasing demand from Asian countries with a focus on China with limited EU production potential.
