EU COM forecasts further decline in the pork market in 2023 In its spring edition, the EU Commission (EU COM) estimates that the EU pork market in 2023 will be even lower than in the previous year. Net production is estimated to be -5.1% lower at 21.2 million t. Within 2 years, EU production has shrunk by a total of 10.5%. In addition to the increased production costs, the ASP is a major pressure factor. The decisive factor is the reduction in the number of sows, so that there are no offspring. Particularly strong production declines are observed in Germany, Poland, Denmark, Belgium and Italy. The year-long increase in Spain has also broken off and production is declining. Pork consumption in the domestic market is expected to fall by 5.9% to 17.4 million tons in 2023 compared to the previous year. The average consumption for the years 2018 - 2021 was around 19 million t. Per capita consumption is expected to drop from the previous 31.8 kg to around 30 kg, the lowest level in years. EU pork export will decrease by 3% to 3.85 million in 2023t fall behind. The highest export volumes were reached with 4.95 million t in 2020 at the time of the ASF outbreak in China. Exports to China have now fallen to 50% but have been partially offset by increased shipments to Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Australia. The high EU price level compared to other export countries such as the USA (€1.60/kg), Canada (€1.35/kg) and Brazil (€1.60/kg) limits the competitiveness of EU pork in the affected sales areas a. The EU pig prices should remain at an above-average level for the time being due to the ongoing shortage. However, the increased piglet prices in connection with falling feed costs provide an incentive to boost piglet production again. However, this is opposed to the increased animal husbandry requirements, the increased construction costs and growing wage costs with a scarce supply of AK.
