FAO reduces world grain harvest 2022/23 by 1.65% yoy In its latest October issue, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reduced global grain production including rice by -1.7% yoy. A 1% higher wheat harvest is estimated, but feed grain production with a focus on corn is expected to fall by -2.8% and rice production to be -2.3% lower. On the consumption side, the FAO estimates a slight reduction of around -0.5%. Wheat consumption remains almost constant, other grain including rice falls slightly. The surplus stocks at the end of the 2022/23 marketing year decrease by 14 million t or -1.6%. The FAO calculates the supply figure on a falling 29.7% ending stock for consumption including rice. The calculated range of inventories is 111 days (previous year: 112 days).The figures for the leading exporting countries are more critical: in the case of wheat , their reserves to compensate for possible losses (eg Ukraine) only reach 17.5% final stock for consumption with feed grain the results drop to 13.1% final stock for consumption. For rice , the figures drop from 29.8 to 27.6%. Uncertainty about the supply in the grain sector determines global prices. The stock exchange prices react very sensitively to any market-relevant information with hectic changes of direction, which often do not last long. For risk reasons, the price level remains well above the average of previous years
