USDA estimates cereal harvest 2019/20 only slightly above consumption level, but higher than last year's USA's much- anticipated initial estimate for cereal production in 2019/20 is estimated at 2,203 million tonnes, or + 3.7% higher Compared to the previous year. Based on its expected use, production is only 7 million tonnes or 0.3% above the current annual consumption . According to the calculations of the supply balance, the final stocks are only slightly above the previous year's level. However, taking the price-determining indicator "stock to use ratio" , the supply situation remains around 1.7% below the previous high in 2017/18. With half of the world's grain reserves in China , but the Middle Country does not provide overhangs for export, a non-China supply bill is more meaningful.According to such a calculation, the final stocks 2019/20 will rise again compared to the previous year, but will clearly lag behind the previous years 2014/15 to 2017/18. The global wheat supply is to 2019/20 due to a crop increase of 46 million tonnes (+ 6.3%) again over the consumption of approx. 760 million t lie . Global inventories increase by 20 million tonnes to 293 million, including China. Excluding China , the overhang inventory will increase by 12 million tonnes to 147 million . t. In this case too , the wheat stocks are around. 50% in China . China's supplies are as high as a whole Chinese crop. The higher estimated harvests in the EU, Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, Australia and Canada will have a significant impact on the 2019/20 wheat market . The maize harvest is estimated at 1,134 million tonnes or 52% of the world cereals market.This harvest will not cover the anticipated 2019/20 consumption of 1,145 million tonnes. Accordingly, global inventories will be reduced by approx. 11 million t fall behind. The bill without China , however, turns out differently. The corn crop excluding China is 14 million tonnes higher than consumption. Accordingly, corn overhang stocks are rising for the rest of the world. The higher harvest estimates for the USA, Brazil, India, South Africa and Russia play a decisive role in the improved supply situation in the corn market excluding China . For the EU, the USDA estimates a grain harvest of approx. 312 million t compared to the dry previous year of 284 million t. If a 5-year average is used as the basis, then a good average harvest is to be assumed. The US Department of Agriculture is again assuming an EU export volume of 35 million tonnes (previous year: 30.5 million tonnes). The strongest competitor to EU exports is Russia. The Russian wheat crop 2019/20 in the amount of 77 milliont is to go to 36 million t in the export. For the other types of cereals come another approx. 10 million tonnes of exports - half corn - added. Thus, it remains in the Russian competition in the markets on the North African coast along the Mediterranean. On the Chicago Stock Exchange , the decline in wheat and corn prices has continued.
