GDT auction of March 03, 2015 - result of + 1.1% before auction
The first action in March 2015 the global dairy trade (GDT) essentially a further contribution to the consolidation of achievements price levels after a long descent contributed. The contract at average + 1.1 has confirmed while lost, the previous development of a higher price level for milk products on an international level % for all products and delivery months momentum compared with the prior auctions.
Essential trigger for the result is the repeated of the total supply reduction. On the other hand, the demand side is (still) willing, however, to continue the path of double-digit inflation, which was expressed in the prior auctions. That suggests a mostly adequately estimated supply situation for the next few months, without any future bottlenecks need to be feared.
The result in the milk powder with 1% discount represents a dampening correction of the strong price increases before auction. While the further strong growth for the front delivery date Apr. 15 + 12.8% fall out particularly. Obviously was still catching up to do in the nearest period of care. For the rear delivery months seems to be seen as the market develops further. In particular significant uncertainty about the development in the EU after the quotas end.
The result of skimmed milk powder with an average increase of 5.9% is more enjoyable. The range ranged from + 3.7 to + 7.8% focusing in Jun. 15 and Jul-15. In the typical production break in New Zealand should have been Godfather.
The butter fats the normal butter + 2.5% was the nose this time again. Butter could not keep the results of the previous auction and remained in the minus range of 2.2%.
The cheese demand enjoyed special popularity. Already for the second time in a row, growth rates in two-digit height of about 11% are observed.
This time, only 3 (Fonterra, Amul and Arla) of a total of 8 affiliated dairy companies at the GDT were involved in the auction offer.
The next auctions are dominated by strongly decreasing milk production in New Zealand due to the low rainfall and the reactions in Europe after the quotas end. How much is the delivery thrust of the EU be, if the currently tight dressed quota-related brake fall away? In the further course of the seasonal meditierende offer high added, once called "Willow shoots effect".
For the EU not to seethe over competitive advantage in third-country business due to the weak euro exchange rate, which even longer time will stop the Greece problem most likely is.
