Unpredictable price fluctuations - high marketing risk Grain prices have risen in several stages in recent years. The starting point is price levels below the €200/t line in the years up to 2020. A first stage of increase occurred at the beginning of 2021 with an increased price range between €200 and under €250/t of wheat. The background is a significantly tighter world supply situation compared to previous years. The supply figure drops from 29 to 27% ending inventory to consumption. The second stage of increase began after the 2021 harvest due to another low global supply development with wheat prices between 250 and 300 €/t. A third stage of increase was triggered by the Ukraine war, which drove wheat prices above 300 to 450 €/t. The lack of delivery volumes from one of the world's leading exporters exacerbated the insufficient coverage of the Asian and African importing countries' needs.After the first price shock of the Ukraine war, the buoyant effect has faded as new crops in the northern hemisphere approach. Negotiations to find safe export routes through the Black Sea have so far yielded partial success in the form of a UN-led temporary agreement. However, there is great distrust in the reliability of Russian politics: rocket fire in the Odessa port. Problems with destroyed roads, bridges, railways and port facilities also delay rapid deliveries. How great is the danger of runaway sea mines? Ship owners and insurance companies are reluctant because of the cargo risk. Ukrainian grain exports, some of which are still old and some of which are new crops, account for around 10% of the world trade volume. Even the approaching delivery prospects led to price declines of around -30 €/t wheat on one day.
