MARS forecast: best prospects for EU corn yields
The agro-meteorological Institute of the European Commission predicts 2014 on the basis of weather records since the beginning of this year's growing season best prospects for the EU maize crop. For the calculations of temperature used all available climate data to precipitation distribution. In recent times, the measurements of the radiation to promote the performance of photosynthesis a plant get increasing attention. This part of the rays need the plants as a source of energy for plant growth. The cheaper fails this part of the formation of yield, crop expectations are higher.
For the corn plant is the ultimate yield formation stage Instead of in the period from mid-June until in September, when the pollination, approach to grain and grain filling takes place.
The current climate data are compared compared with 5-year averages from the years 2009-2013 and the related income. The comparison invoice with the year's readings allows a reasonably accurate forecast for the Flächenerträgen in the respective regions of the EU.
The dark green-colored areas indicate that corn yields more than 4% over the five-year averages are. That is the highest in the EU the case, especially for corn stressed South-Eastern European countries of Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, France, Germany and Italy. The Baltic States, Poland, Czech Republic, Austria and Spain are only average. Outliers with poor harvests are not.
The Commission used these results for their crop estimates. The forecasts were increased in 2014 for corn and now there are over 70 million tonnes (previously 67 Mt). The EU will need to import as a result less corn. Assuming that marketing year 2014/15 only about 8 million tonnes imported must be Instead of 11 Mio.t in the previous year in this. EU corn imports are subject to after years once again an import customs duty, to a price collapse by imports in this country to prevent.
The convenient location of Romania on the Black Sea and to the importing countries on the Mediterranean coast could help in connection with a weak euro exchange rate for a high competitiveness in the third country of export. When the wheat, this position of Romania had exceptional success in this year.
