Russia's and Brazil's great expectations
Russia searches for replacements after the imposed import ban for pork from the EU, United States and Canada. It falls the choice primarily to those countries that have a considerable production and exports. Brazil is to the blocked countries in 4th place with a production volume of just under 3.5 million tonnes. The Brazilian pork production increases for years All the time, but the consumption as well.
The pork export of Brazil is approximately 650,000 tonnes per year. No more there were increases in exports but more than 10 years, because of rising domestic consumption allows for no margin.
Russia's failure can only import pork to about 750 000 t are estimated. Even if Brazil would abandon its all export commitments with other countries, the current Brazilian export quantity not sufficient to provide a full replacement.
Yet is high hopes, because there are no better alternatives around the world.
A great perspective to meet the Russian import demand also only opened for Brazil. The orientations of the target amount depending on the euphoria to additional 75,000 to 150,000 tonnes of pork exports towards Russia . This requires all the efforts of the Brazilian pork sector, which focuses primarily on the South-East of the country. The port proximity is advantageous, because transports in Brazil To find Instead of almost exclusively with the truck. This is time consuming and expensive. And the distances are great.
The upbeat mood in the Brazilian pork industry is huge. That can be immediately reflected in the pork prices. The current is converted pig price in the last two months to over €2 per kg rose. The multi-annual average price is around €1.30 per kg, with variations, in the summer months to below €1 / kg, and rarely more than €1.60 per kg.
In view of the recent decreases in feed prices, a high rate of return in the pig can be calculated. That stimulated the production, but it takes time from 1.5 years to more gilts, more piglets and then more fattening pigs available. If the import lock is In fact after over a year, the increase in pork comes too late.
High pork prices cause but also a corresponding reluctance to buy domestically, so that in the short term thanks to the absence of consumer pork for export can be made available.
