Situation on the oilseed market: How are rapeseed prices developing? After the soaring price of rapeseed caused by the war, quotations are once again approaching the multi-year average level of around €400/t. The reversal is supported by falling soybean and palm oil prices as well as weaker crude oil prices. The extension of the agreement on secured Black Sea transport opens the perspective for the coming Ukrainian rapeseed deliveries; As a rule, exports mainly take place in the late summer/autumn months. Global rapeseed production rose by around 16 to 87.3 million tonnes in 2022/23. The two largest producers, EU-27 and Canada, played a key role; Australia, however, made the decisive contribution with a rapeseed harvest of 8.4 million t, about twice as high as the long-term average. A higher acreage and weather-related (La Niña) far above-average yields have contributed to this. For the coming world rapeseed harvest, the USDA estimates an unchanged overall result compared to the previous year.But different harvests are expected in each area. Around 1 million t more are predicted for the EU and Canada. China and India are also expected to increase their production somewhat. In contrast, the Australian Department of Agriculture assumes a 30% reduction due to the changed El Niño weather conditions in Australia. Farmers have already responded with significant reductions in acreage. An average rapeseed harvest of between 3.5 and 3.6 million tons is expected in the Ukraine. Overall, rapeseed prices are expected to be at the pre-war level in view of an expected build-up in stocks.
