1,80 € / kg- is more? In mid-May 2019, the V-prize for slaughter pigs stands at 1.80 € kg. Under normal market circumstances, such a price level does not materialize even in the May barbecue month. The barbecue weather is not particularly advantageous this year. There must be serious reasons that push a pig price to this level. 1. The declining battle figures of 900,000 pigs per week are well below the usual mark of around 1 million. However, due to seasonal reasons, the numbers of slaughterers fall down towards the summer every year. However, the decline will be more pronounced this year in 2019. 2. The decline in battle numbers can be observed in all major EU countries (with the exception of Spain). However, the numbers vary depending on the EU member state. 3. Third country exports have made a strong upswing. For a surplus production area, export is a deciding factor in easing the burden on the internal market. Exports are estimated at approx. 50% determined by the deliveries to China.The rampant ASP has now led to a stock reduction in April of 18% in the pigs and 21% in the sows. In addition, Vietnam has lost about 10% of its pigs through ASP proliferation. Vietnam holds the same amount as Germany with 30 million pigs. The epidemic continues to spread in Cambodia. Other export countries, such as the US and Canada, are in a trade dispute with China. On US pork imports, the Chinese charge an import duty of 64%. Canada can export a maximum of 1.3 million tonnes of pork in total. Brazil may reach a total of 0.9 million tonnes this year. China's demand for imports in 2019 is estimated at 2.6 million tonnes. For a full compensation of the lack of domestic production, around 8 million tonnes would have to be imported by 2019. The total previous world trade in pork meat of 8.3 million tonnes would therefore have to be doubled for China's shortage. What are the other prospects? 4. In Germany or Europe, the main barbecue season is still to come.The usual supply for the increasing summer consumption has largely failed this year. It is difficult to meet demand from ongoing slaughter. 5. According to the livestock census results, a persistently low pig population is to be expected for the time being in Europe / Germany. 6. China demand is currently served by the outsourcing of state-owned inventories. This has led to a current stoppage of the increased pig prices. The stock levels, however, only last for a few months. In addition, many slaughterings are currently being carried out from Anngst, because a TSK does not exist in China. 7. In the second half of 2019, the full impact of the ASP-related production stoppages will only take effect, as the reserves are exhausted. China is trying to buy protein-containing foods worldwide in all markets. For the year 2020 it should get worse, because the slaughtered sows of approx. 7 million pieces (equivalent to the entire sow herd in the USA) no longer provide piglets as a basis for pig fattening. This will make the domestic pork range even scarcer than in 2019.The size range is estimated at between 15 and 20 million t. (The extreme case is equivalent to the amount of pork in the EU) 8. Reconstruction of Chinese pig stocks takes years, because of the great risk of re-infection, there is little willingness for renewal. 9. The increasingly widespread ASP in Asia leads to further bottlenecks in the supply of pork. 10. Even if the low availability and the high result in a forced renunciation of consumption, the demand potential still remains. This keeps prices high for a long time.
