IGC estimates world grain crop 2019/20 0.5% up on the previous month - less corn in the US The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates the world grain crop 2019/20 to be 2,159 million tonnes , 0.5% higher than the previous month. Compared to the previous year, the increase amounts to 17.3 million t or + 0.8%. On the expenditure side, consumption is at 2,186 million tonnes estimated at an increase to the previous year of 27 million tonnes. The higher increase in consumption as a result of harvest growth leads to a calculated reduction in the final stocks to just under 600 million tonnes. The supply number including China amounts to 27.3% final consumption and thus significantly lower than the nearly 30% in previous years. If one disregards China with more than 50% of world stocks due to a lack of participation in world trade, a supply number of 16.3% final stock is calculated for consumption. In the previous years, the figures averaged 17%.World wheat production is estimated at 764 mill . t estimated at 31 million t higher than the previous year. The increase of +13 mn t comes mainly from the EU, +6 mn t contributes to the Black Sea countries r, further increases are recorded for the USA, India and some smaller countries. The IGC estimates the wheat consumption by 20 million t higher to 758 million t . This results in an increase in inventories to approx. 207 million t. The supply number changes only slightly. This also applies to the accounting without China. For the EU , the IGC, in close agreement with other institutions, estimates a wheat crop of approx . 150 million t or +7% above the catastrophic previous year. With domestic consumption of 130 million tonnes, around 26 million tonnes are estimated for export , with surplus stocks expected to decline slightly. The world corn production estimates the IGC with 1.Although 100 million tonnes was higher than in the previous month, it still remains 29 million tonnes below the previous year's level. Significantly, the expected decline in the US is responsible. The US crop is rated 366 million tonnes lower at 341 million tonnes . The USDA in its latest report was still optimistic 352 million t . Global corn consumption is predicted to be only slightly lower than the previous year at 1,139 million tonnes . This results in a reduction in global stockpiles by 40 million tonnes or more . -12%. Decline in consumption in the US and EU is being offset by increases in China and some smaller countries. The supply ratio excluding China fell from 13.8% in the previous year to just under 12%. For the EU , the IGC estimates a corn harvest of 66.7 million tonnes at the previous year's level. The USDA is close to 65 milliont below, the EU Commission estimates the EU corn harvest at 69.5 million t . However, there are significant differences between the less-favored drylands across central Europe and the rain-favored south-east in the individual EU Member States with record harvests in Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary. Overall, it should be noted that this year's world harvest is below the increased consumption . The high inventories of the preceding 3 to 5 years are a thing of the past. Nevertheless, an average supply situation should be assumed. This is especially true for the wheat market, while the corn sector is a little scarcer .
