May 2023: IGC confirms 2023/24 global grain harvest and consumption higher than in the previous year In its May 2023 issue, the International Grains Council (IGC) estimates that the 2023/24 global grain harvest will be 39 million t at 2,294 million t higher than in the previous year . Global consumption is estimated at 2,302 million t . The arithmetical excess stocks fall by around 8 million t to 580 million t . The global supply figure decreases to 25.2% ending inventory for consumption. In previous years, the figures ranged from 31 to 28%. The supplies last for about 92 days, 3 years ago it was 105 days. The supply situation without China also falls from 15.6% in the previous year to 14.6% at the end of the year. The supplies last for 54 days (previous year 58 days). The IGC estimates the global wheat harvest at 783 million tons . In the previous year, 803 million t were achieved.Consumption is expected to increase to 795 million tons . The stocks decrease by -12 million t to 271 million t , the supply figure o. China falls from 22 to 19.5% final stock to consumption. However, there are significant differences in the individual production areas. Russia expects 84 million t or 11 million t less than last year. The US harvest should only be slightly higher than last year. In contrast, the wheat harvest in the Ukraine was estimated at 20 million t (previous year 26 million t). After last year's record harvest of 39 million tons, Australia is only expected to reach 28 million tons . The Chinese and Indian wheat crops are ranked slightly higher. Despite partially offsetting excess and reduced production, the result is a tighter supply situation for wheat. The war in Ukraine is causing ongoing uncertainty. The IGC estimates the global corn harvest at 1.217 million t or almost 64 million t higher than in the previous year. At 1,211 million t, global corn consumption is expected to increase by around 40 million t compared to the previous year. Stocks are expected to increase by around 7 million tons to 272 million tons in the course of the 2023/24 corn marketing year. The supply figure drops by 1 percentage point to around 22% of the end stock for consumption. Just 3 years ago, the excess stocks were around 26% measured against consumption. The corn harvest in the USA , as the world's largest producer and exporter, is estimated at 382 million t or +34 million t higher than in the previous year due to the area under cultivation. In the Ukraine , a decline from last year's 27 to 21 million t is estimated. In contrast, the Brazilian maize harvest in spring 2024 is expected to increase from 123 to 130 million tons and exports will be around 2 million tons higher.After the catastrophic corn harvest this year of 43 million tons, a result of 61 million tons in spring 2024 is predicted for Argentina . Overall , it can be stated that the supply situation in 2023/24 will once again lag behind the previous years. A considerable part of the additional generation is offset by the increasing consumption. In the more critical economic situation caused by the war, security of supply has become increasingly important for market and price developments. In the past , the speculative soaring stock market prices were primarily a reflection of supply fears under the uncertain economic and military-political circumstances. The fundamental supply-demand figures have recently come to the fore again and are causing a strong price adjustment. The price increase effect of the Ukraine war, estimated at +100 $/t wheat, has meanwhile been halved. But there is still no reliable bottom in sight for price formation.
