IGC confirms unchanged soy supply - Brazil in the final stage of a high harvest In its February 2021 edition, the International Grain Council (IGC) leaves the global soy harvest in 2020/21 unchanged at around 360 million t. Global consumption is estimated at 365 million t. The declining final stocks (EB) of 45 million t correspond to only 12.3% EB for consumption . Two years ago the supply figure was still 18.2%. Although this year's global soy harvest is estimated to be 4.25% higher than in the weak previous year, it is still at the level of two years ago. The poor US harvest was responsible for last year's result. On the production side , the increased harvests in Brazil (in the USA ) make a major contribution to the increase, while Argentina and Ukraine tend to deliver weaker results.On the demand side , China dominates with an import volume of 102 million t or a share of 62% in world trade . The sharp increase in purchases by China means that the previously high inventories in the USA have fallen to an arithmetical 3.2 million t. For Brazil , the IGC only estimates a final inventory of 1.5 million t. For the 3 largest exporters , only 6.0% of their export volume will remain in stocks. In terms of this year's crop risks, the reserve stocks remain extremely tight. A strong expansion of the soybean acreage in the USA is expected for the next marketing year. This prospect is slowing down the further soy price increase.
