IGC estimates in Sep. 2021 World grain supply again slightly better in 2021/22 In its September 2021 edition, the International Grain Council (IGC) estimates the global grain harvest to be 2,288 million t or 5 million t higher than in the previous month. Compared to the previous year, the result is + 3.4% higher. Consumption is estimated unchanged from the previous month at 2,288 million t. This increases the excess stocks to 599 million t . The global supply figure increases again to 26.1% final inventory for consumption. In the previous years the figure was between 28 and 26.5%. The supplies last for around 95 days, 3 years ago it was 105 days. If one examines the market situation without China , one comes to a supply figure of 15.4% final stock for consumption compared to the previous years with 16 to 18%. The supplies last unchanged for 56 days. The global wheat harvest remains at 782 milliont still at record levels. Compared to the previous year, the increase is only +1.2%. Consumption is estimated unchanged from the previous month at 783 million t (previous year 770 million t) . The stocks remain constant at 278 million t, as does the supply figure with 35.5% final stock for consumption. However, there are considerable differences in the individual production areas. In Canada , wheat production is around approx . -35% liked it. Russia harvests around -12% less than in the previous year. In the USA , the result is around -7% worse. In contrast, the high harvests in the Ukraine with + 28% and the EU with around + 10% were confirmed. Australia has a bumper crop for the second year in a row. On average, increases and decreases balance each other out, but the different distribution at the world level leads to difficult changes in global trade.The IGC estimates the global corn harvest at 1,209 million t or + 7.3 % higher than in the previous year. The corn harvest in the USA as the world's largest producer and exporter is estimated at 380 million tons. In the Ukraine , an increase in harvests and exports of around + 28% is predicted. In China , too, earnings are expected to be 4.6% higher. Chinese imports are expected to halve. In contrast, the Brazilian maize harvest fell by around 16% last year and exports by 37%. Global corn consumption is expected to increase by 4.3% year-on-year to 1,201 million t. The increasing consumption in China is particularly contributing to this. Global inventories are t rise in the course of the maize marketing year 2021/22 by approx. 3% to 281 million. The number of supplies increases slightly to around 23% final inventory for consumption. 4 years ago, the excess stocks were up to 30% based on consumption.Global supplies last for 83 days (34 days without China; 44 days ago 2 years ago). Overall , it can be stated that the supply situation is still lagging behind the previous years. The additional generation is partially offset by an increase in consumption. The supply situation in the corn sector is somewhat tighter than in the wheat market, but a higher proportion of feed wheat partially compensates for this. In contrast, bread wheat is scarce worldwide. This leads to rising wheat prices, which rub off on other types of grain. The Paris prices rise again to around 250 € / t. The corn prices are picking up slightly at the level reached.
