Soybeans: IGC reduces global harvest by 5 million t to 365 million t The International Grain Council (IGC) estimates the global soybean harvest to be just 365 million t. In particular, the US harvest will be cut by 2.5 million t and the Argentinian result by 1.8 million t. EU production is also somewhat lower. The IGC estimates the worldwide consumption at a slightly reduced 370 million t. The shortfall in production is covered by reducing the end of stocks . With almost 45 million t of excess stock, the arithmetical stocks are only sufficient for 44 days (previous year 51 days). World trade in soy is dominated on the demand side by China with a share of 60%. The suppliers are Brazil with 85 million t, the USA with 60 million t and Argentina with 8.5 million t. All three countries together provide 92% of the global supply.The increasing Chinese imports lead to a significant shortage of soy stocks in the supplier countries with the consequence of rising prices on the leading stock exchanges. Support comes from the rise in the price of crude oil and the high palm oil prices. However, if one observes the forward rates for the coming months, the future rate increases will be significantly weaker. An expected record harvest of 133 million t in Brazil provides the background for this. However, the reference to the La Niña weather phenomenon with possible dry phases should not be missing. The internationally increased rapeseed prices are benefiting from the price increases in the rest of the oilseeds sector and are having an impact on the producer level with higher spot prices.
