IGC estimates global grain supply 2020/21 slightly higher than in the current marketing year . The International Grains Council (IGC) published a first cautious forecast of the supply situation in the coming grain marketing year in its March 2020 edition. However, given the corona virus pandemic, the results are still shaky. The current price turbulence, triggered by panicked purchases and sales, signals a strong uncertainty in the behavior of supply and demand. It emerged that cereals for the food sector, such as rice and wheat, are now experiencing a strong upturn in hamster-like demand after a brief sharp drop in prices. Price developments are exacerbated by restrictions in the transport chain as a result of precautionary measures to prevent the pandemic from spreading further. On the other hand, there is a permanent price drop for agricultural products for industrial use , as can be seen for corn and sugar for bioethanol production.The historic low in crude oil dominates in this sector, which will not recover as quickly as a result of the expected global economic downturn. The question of the sustainability of the development now being observed is fraught with uncertainty . How long and intensely does the virus pandemic remain in danger ? For the current business year 2019/20 , the IGC is only making small corrections. A slight increase in production to 2,223 million tonnes of grain or rice contrasts with an increased demand. As a result, the arithmetic surplus stocks changed only slightly to 605 million tons. This corresponds to approx. 27.5% of consumption and enough for approx. 101 days . In FY 2018/19 it was 105 days and 110 days in the previous year. For the coming year 2020/21 , the IGC estimates a 2% increase in grain production. The increase in consumption should be just under 1.65%. This means that the level of care will only change insignificantly.The range of inventories is 99.5 days. In the case of global wheat production , the IGC expects an increase in production from 5 million tons to 768 million tons. Consumption growth is expected to increase by 7 million t to 760 million t. This increases the stock level only slightly. Global corn production is expected to increase by 3.7% to 1,157 million tons. After the weak previous year, a good average US corn harvest is expected, which is at least approx. Accounts for 1/3 of world production. On the consumption side , only an increase of 2% to 1,173 million t is estimated. The final inventory changes are in the estimation error range; A build-up of stocks is expected in the large exporting countries. Since maize is still to be sown in the northern hemisphere, there are still considerable risks for the growing and harvesting period. The virus pandemic could exacerbate the procurement of resources. Therefore, forecast results are only to be understood as a first orientation.
