IGC cuts US soybean harvest to 106 million t - Reduction of global supply situation The International Grains Council (IGC) significantly reduced the supply situation in the soybean market in its June issue of 2019. Lower harvest expectations in the US are meeting falling demand with a focus on China. Due to adverse weather conditions, soybean cultivation in the US is severely affected. The IGC estimates only a 2019/20 harvest of 106 million tonnes compared to the previous year with approx. 124 million t. More detailed data is expected from the USDA cultivation report on 27.06.2019 In the South American growing regions, the Brazilian harvest of 116 million tonnes completed in the first half of 2019 and 55 million tonnes in Argentina is estimated. For the coming crops in the spring of 2020, 120 million tonnes are forecast for Brazil and only 54 million tonnes for Argentina. China continues to promote soybean cultivation with state aid. In the current year 2019/20, 17.3 million tonnes are to be achieved.Nevertheless, increasing self-generation is not sufficient to meet the reduced demand of forecast 103 million t . The IGC estimates the Chinese import volume at 86 million t . In view of the ASP-related reduction of pig stocks, the import of China could be even smaller. Overall, a 4% smaller soybean harvest of 348 million tonnes is expected at world level. On the consumption side , 357 million t are estimated. This is expected to reduce inventories from 55 to 45 million tonnes . The arithmetic reserves last 46 days compared to the previous year with 57 days. The supply situation still remains midfield. The stock market prices for the soybean complex have recovered to a lower level after a short flight. The soybean is quoted at 902 ct / bu or (292 € / t) for the Sep. 2019 date . Soybean oil is traded at $ 28.9 / p (561 € / t). Soybean meal is at approx. $ 315 / sht (306 € / t).Future monthly figures assume slight growth rates. The G-20 summit and USDA's crop report on Friday, June 27, 2019, are causing further unrest in the coming price moves.
