IGC estimates world grain harvest 2019/20 marginally higher - drought not included yet In its April issue, the International Grains Council has only marginally revised upwards the next world grain harvest compared to the previous month's estimate . The reason for this was the better corn harvest prospects in South America in the coming months. Compared to the previous year, global grain production in 2019/20 should be 50 million t or 2.3% higher. The increase comes in the first line from the 27 million t higher wheat harvest . For corn one expects approx. 7 million t more. The remainder is distributed among the other cereals. Higher wheat harvests are expected after the losses in the previous year, especially in the EU and Russia. The recent low-precipitation weather phase has not yet been included in the estimates. More corn is to be grown in the USA . On the consumption side , the IGC estimates slightly less than in the previous month, but still approx. 36 million t more than in the previous year. Consumption growth is estimated at 11 million tonnes for wheat and 16 million tonnes for maize.The global grain balance ends with a reduction in overhang stocks from 23 million tonnes to 588 million tonnes or 26.7% compared to consumption. That corresponds to good supply situation. However, crop estimates at this early stage are still subject to weather conditions in the crucial crop formation phase of May to August. There is already a worrying lack of rainfall in Europe after the dry year of 2018. Particularly affected are large parts of the Iberian peninsula of central and southern Italy Italy, some southeastern European regions and large parts of France. In recent years, the rain poverty is also noticeable in northern Germany. Given the lack of groundwater supplies due to the recent drought in Europe, above-average precipitation is needed, especially in the coming months. So far, the tight rainfall has not caused a replenishment.A critical water supply continues to exist in Australia , which typically provides more than half of its grain production for export. Drought news also comes from northern China . The initial expectation that ASF-induced reduction in pig production would reduce feed grain imports is now in the red. Floods in the northern states of the US are delaying maize sowing so that the original intention to increase maize areas is open again. The soybean is late sowing compatible. In Canada , a larger summer wheat area is expected due to the faltering sales of canola. The abrupt decline in the last two months seems to have caught on after recent developments. The potential prospects of weaker harvests due to low levels of rainfall are only noticeable in small beginnings.But the phase of the classic weather markets is yet to come.
