Livestock census Nov 2021: significant stock reduction

Results of the livestock census on November 03, 2021   In 10 years the number of pig farmers has decreased by 39%. The pig population today is as low as it was 25 years ago. The preliminary evaluation of the livestock census records for the reference date November 3rd-2021 resulted in a pig population of 23.6 million . Animals - 4.2% less than were counted in May 2021. A comparison to November 2020 is not meaningful because of the Covid-related congestion at the time. However, if you compare Nov.-2019 with Nov.-2021, an inventory decrease of 8.9% in 2 years can be determined. The number of sows is only 1.57 million breeding animals or around 3.6% less than in the May 2021 census. In a two-year comparison, the breeding population has fallen by around 12%. In the last few years, an acceleration of the stock reduction process has been observed. In view of future ownership and market conditions, this development is not over yet.In the event of a similar continuation of the decline in numbers, only 1.25 million sows and 22.5 million pigs can be expected in 2025. The number of pig farmers will drop to 15,000. The number of animals per farm will grow. For the assessment of the future supply of slaughter pigs, the developments in the individual herd groups provide initial indications.

1. A third of the number of fattening pigs in the 80 to 110 kg LG weight class will be ready for slaughter in January 2022. Compared to the previous year, a decrease of around 8% was determined.
2. The number of fattening pigs from 50 to 80 kg will mainly reach their final fattening weight in February 2022. The decrease in this portfolio is 6.6% compared to the previous year.
3. Young pigs weighing 30 to 50 kg will be slaughtered at the beginning of March 2022. According to the counting results, this stock has decreased by around 10% compared to the previous year.
4. The piglet population has decreased by 10.3% . This will affect the number of domestic slaughterings between March and April 2022.

With imports of slaughter pigs from neighboring countries remaining low, the average weekly slaughter figures for the coming period are between 750,000 and 800,000 animals . Compared to the usual figures in previous years, which averaged 1 million weekly slaughterings, a significantly lower supply of pigs can be expected in the first half of 2022. That should be noticeable in price increases.