USDA corrects world grain supply only slightly compared to the previous month In its most recent March 2023 edition, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) only changed the estimates for the global grain supply situation for 2022/23 in a few cases. Wheat market: + 5 million t compared to the previous month
- The Australian wheat harvest was increased to 39 million tons (previous month 38 million tons).
- The USDA now estimates the Indian wheat harvest at 104 million t (previous month 103 million t)
- In Kazakhstan, the wheat harvest will be increased from 14 to 16.4 million tons.
- Global wheat consumption will increase by 2 million t to 793.2 million t.
- Global wheat exports increase by 1 million tons to almost 214 million tons.
- The ending stocks fall by 2 million t to 267 million t (without China almost 127 million t).
Maize market: - 4 million t on the previous month:
- Argentina's harvest and exports were reduced by -7 million tons due to drought.
- Ukrainian corn exports will increase by 1 million t to 23.5 milliont valued higher.
- Global corn consumption falls by 5.5 million t compared to the previous month.
- The global ending stocks change slightly to 296 million t (excluding China 89 million t)
The global supply situation remains below average: The global supply figure at 26.3% ending inventory to consumption is well below previous values of 30%; excluding China, the ending stock remains at 13.4%. The excess stocks in the major exporting countries are falling from 57 million t in the previous year to 52 million t. The inventories in the Ukraine and Russia have increased, but are not reliable delivery candidates. Effects on stock exchange prices:
- On the Chicago Stock Exchange , the downward trend in wheat, which has been ongoing for a period of time, is continuing
- In the case of corn , the previous decline in Chicago has been halted for the time being.
- The Paris Stock Exchange is showing signs of stabilization after the recent downturn. Wheat is quoted somewhat more firmly at 265 €/t, corn is around the 263 mark.
The grain price level is increasingly decoupled from the Ukraine shock. Above-average deliveries of wheat from Russia, Australia and some other export countries with the exception of Argentina ensure a calming global supply situation.
