MARS estimates first wheat yields for 2019 against the background of climate data analysis In its latest issue of March, the Agricultural Meteorological Institute of the EU Commission (MARS) evaluated the climate data from February and March 2019 with regard to possible area yields. It turns out that the mild winter in many parts of Europe led to favorable starting conditions. The damage to the east in the east is minimal, the vegetation started very early, the cereal stocks have already developed strongly for the season. However, there are some critical areas with too little precipitation and above-average temperature sums. In the southwest of Europe, large parts of Spain and almost all Italy are affected. The southeastern regions also suffer from low rainfall. In the northeastern part, from Poland to the Baltic states, it was above average warm. In the remaining parts of central and northern Europe, the climate data were still within the range of average fluctuation margins including a mild winter.Representing all winter cereals, MARS forecasts regional earnings prospects. For the EU as a whole, a wheat yield of 5.81 t / ha is predicted. For classification, it is advisable to use the 5-year average, as the previous year was characterized by drought in many EU regions. As a result, earnings expectations are 1.8% above the 5-year average, a result that can be linked to the previous favorable weather conditions. Above-average yield forecasts MARS also ventures for another 16 EU Member States. In particular, the Baltic states stand out with over 5% and Romania with + 8%. For France, Mars expects a 3% yield increase over the 5-year average and Spain's wheat is expected to deliver 4.5% higher yields. However, Germany should only be 0.5% above the multi-year average. Compared to the weak previous year, earnings increased by + 17%. In 9 EU countries, MARS expects 2019 to be lower than the 5-year average. These include Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria Slovenia and Greece.In the neighboring EU states of the Black Sea area, MARS expects the wheat yields to be in the perennial trend due to the mild winter with predominantly sufficient rainfall. This is especially true for large regions in the Ukraine. Russia has a differentiated assessment. In the southern areas, there have been some wintering and, finally, little precipitation has fallen. But the warm temperatures led to the melting snow and have favored the growth. The question is whether the soil water is sufficient until harvest. In the northern areas, a blanket of snow between 30 and 70 cm protects you from the Russian cold and ensures sufficient moisture during the subsequent snowmelt. Predominantly favorable conditions prevail in the Magrheb states on the north-western coast of Africa with high import requirements. In Algeria, above-average wheat yields are expected. The stocks have a growth bias of approx. 14 days and are already in bloom. Overall, earnings expectations are in the upper midfield. But this expectation was also in the previous year and then came the dry summer.
