Coceral estimates the EU-27 grain harvest in 2022 lower at 285.6 million t (previous year 289.7 million t) In its third forecast at the end of May 2022, the umbrella organization of European grain and oilseed traders (Coceral) estimated the EU-27 grain harvest 2022 to 285.6 million t compared to the 2nd estimate lower predicted. incl. Around 309.5 million t are forecast for GB. The future close trade relations with the UK suggest that the exit country should continue to be included in the considerations of market and price developments. The decisive reason for the currently lower figures is that the expected yield is around 1.3 dt/ha lower than in the previous year, despite the larger cultivation area. Weather developments, the high fertilizer and plant protection as well as energy costs are the decisive influencing factors. Compared to the 2021 harvest, a moderate harvest decline of -0.8 is expected for the time being. The result would thus remain in the upper average range.With an expected lower consumption as a result of reduced animal stocks, the previously increased imports will be further reduced. Exports to third countries will increase significantly in view of the high world market prices. There are different developments in the individual Member States. In France, the largest production area, COCERAL estimates a weather-related, significantly weaker harvest (-4.2%) as a result of reduced yields per hectare. After last year's record harvest with maximum maize yields, a comparatively high harvest reduction of -17.8% is predicted for Romania; however, the result remains within the range of the 5-year average. A lower harvest volume of -8.8% is also expected for Poland due to the yield. For Hungary , COCERAL estimates a significant yield-related crop growth of +15.2% after the poor previous year. After a dry spell, Spain's grain stocks recovered in good time thanks to sufficient rainfall.The unusually high result of the previous year should even be exceeded. Growth of 7.6% is expected for Great Britain after the previous year, which was only just average. This means that the British will continue to be welcome wheat exporters, especially this year, with global demand increasing. With a little change of 42.36 million t with a reduced consumption of 41.5 million t, the German harvest can ensure an adequate supply situation in this country. However, there are deficits in maize and the higher-quality wheat qualities. The wheat harvest in the EU-27 is set back to 127.3 million t by -1.9% compared to the previous year . A smaller acreage and a reduced yield expectation are reasons. Coceral estimates the barley harvest of the EU-27 at 53.1 million t compared to 52.2 million t in the previous year. A higher acreage is partially offset by lower yields.With a slightly larger area under cultivation, the EU-27 maize harvest of just under 66 million t is expected to fall well short of the record result of the previous year of 69.5 million t. The yield expectations were reset from 75.5 to 71 dt/ha. However, there are still some opportunities and risks before the harvest.
