start May 2022: Nitrogen prices down 30% – permanent? Towards the end of the main fertilizer season, N fertilizer prices are falling across the board worldwide. The international basket price index for granulated urea falls from just under $1,000 per t to below $700/t. KAS is quoted below €700/t at the German import ports. There are multiple reasons for the N price drop:
- The main cost factor, natural gas , has softened recently.
- The high prices have led to an unexpectedly low demand for N , so that, contrary to expectations, the warehouses have not yet been completely emptied.
- The main fertilizer season is coming to an end, further sales are not in sight.
- An overlay is expensive; free storage space is needed for year-round production.
- On an international level, North and South American consumers have clearly held back.India has delayed its state import tenders for a long time. Export taxes of the exporting countries were reduced in order to stimulate sales.
The phosphate prices have so far hardly shown any notable movement. Potash prices are still developing upward momentum. The future prospects are not without risks:
- Gas deliveries and gas price developments are unpredictable due to the war.
- The ongoing loss of purchasing power of the euro makes imported goods more expensive.
- India is again appearing increasingly as a buyer.
- China is still on the brakes when it comes to exports.
- No major changes in the production capacities of fertilizer plants are planned for the current and next year.
- Persistently high grain prices play a decisive role in fertilizer price formation in a monopoly-like supplier market.
