New USDA grain estimate - little changes to previous month - Stock market left
The Dec. 18 issue of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) provided only minor corrections to the global supply situation, but changed in critical individual positions.
The world grain harvest in 2018/19 is estimated at 2,104 million t. This is offset by an anticipated consumption of 2,153 million tonnes. The shortfall is covered by the reduction in inventories from 649 to 593 million tonnes year-on-year. Thus, the previously ample supply drops significantly compared to earlier years.
The global wheat harvest of 733 million remains below the previous year's level of 763 million tonnes. back.Crucial to the decline are Russia with a shortfall of 15 million t and the EU with a minus of 14 million t. Australia has recently added 4 million tonnes. Only a few smaller producer regions, such as Canada, Argentina and India, can detect slightly higher wheat yields.
Global wheat consumption rises slightly to 745 million t. The net loss for the current crop is the reduction of inventories by approx. 11 million t covered.
The wheat trade continues to be led on the export side by Russia with 36.5 million tons. This is followed by the USA with 29 million tonnes and Canada with 24 million tonnes. The EU falls to 4th place with 22 million t. The Ukraine can still boast with exports of 16.5 million t. The aforementioned 5 countries account for more than 50% of world trade.
On the import side , Egypt stands out with 12 million t. Algeria , with 7 million tonnes of wheat imports, is also one of the most interesting importers on the doorstep of the EU. Indonesia is becoming an increasingly important import destination with 10 million tonnes and Bangladesh with 6 million tonnes. Brazil with 7.5 million tonnes and Japan with just under 6 million tonnes are also among the major importers of wheat.
The global corn harvest estimated the USDA with 1,100 million t by approx. 24 million t higher than in the previous year. With an unchanged 371 million tons, the US has the largest share, followed by China with a harvest of 256 million tons. Brazil's first and second crops are estimated to be 94.5 million tonnes +12 million tonnes up on the previous year.
USDA estimates global corn consumption 45 million t higher year-on-year at 1,131 million t. In this case, too, the shortfall will be met by the reduction in inventories.
The global export of maize is contested by the US with 62 million tonnes or almost 40% of world trade. Argentina and Brazil contribute 27.5 and 26.5 million tons, respectively. In recent years, Ukraine has come to the fore with 28 million.
The world's largest maize importer is the EU with 21 million tonnes of imports. This is followed by Mexico with 16.7 million tonnes, Japan with 15.5 million tonnes and South Korea with 10 million tonnes. The rest is distributed over many small import quantities.
The remaining cereals do not play a decisive role in determining the price level with 270 million tonnes or a share of 13%.
The repeatedly confirmed tighter global supply situation in the grain sector has pushed prices upwards on the leading stock exchanges . In Chicago , wheat (SRW) is quoted at around € 170.9 / t for March 2019. US corn is valued only slightly higher at 133.68 € / t . In Paris , the March 19 wheat prices rise to 205 € / t and the corn price to 178.50 € / t.
In the export business , the wheat prices of the most important export countries are close to one another. Russia's price advantage has largely melted away. The US and the EU can have a say in the competition for sales.
