Oct 2022: USDA cuts global grain harvest again Month- on-month results Global grain production is estimated to be around 6 million t lower. The main reasons are a 3.5 million t lower US wheat harvest, 1.5 million t lower Argentinian wheat result and 2.5 million t lower EU corn harvest: This is offset by a 2.5 million t larger wheat harvest opposite to. Global grain consumption is also expected to fall by 6 million tons. The cuts are taking place in the importing countries of North Africa and Southeast Asia. A significant decrease is also predicted in Ukraine. The ending stocks fall by -3.5 million t, of which -2 in the Ukraine and -1 million t in the USA. Results in comparison to the previous year Global grain production is estimated at 2,242 million t (previous year 2,280 million t). Global consumption is also classified as lower at 2,257 million t (previous year 2,280 million t).The ending stocks are calculated at around 594 million t (previous year 614 million t). The global supply figure falls to 26.3% ending stock to consumption (previous year 27%), excluding China to a declining 13.6% (previous year 14.5%). The supply is thus at its lowest level for almost 10 years. Added to this is the insecurity of supply against the background of the war in Ukraine. In global world trade , the quantities are estimated to be lower at 434 million t (previous year 465 million t). The Ukraine exports are expected to fall to around 29 million t (previous year 60 million t), but are uncertain. For Russia , the USDA estimates export quantities of 52 million tons of grain (previous year 42.5 million tons ).After the heat-disaster year, Canada's exports are expected to increase from 20 to 33 million tons. EU exports are estimated at around 50 million t (previous year (45 million t) . Despite the drought , India is expected to export wheat at the same level as last year. On the import side , the critical supply situation in the North African and Middle Eastern countries with slightly reduced import volumes confirmed. China is to reduce its grain imports by around 10% . The global grain supply in 2022/23 has continued to decline for around 7 years . In addition, there has recently been increased supply uncertainty as a result of the war in Ukraine.The further earnings prospects are clouded by the sharp increase in fertilizer, energy and transport costs, so that in the following year there is hardly any justification for a higher harvest prospect. Prices on the stock exchanges are picking up again after exports to the Ukraine have calmed down to a certain extent.
