Globally scarce pork supply - increasing world trade - high price expectations As a result of the ASP with a particularly negative impact on the Chinese pig population, an unusually scarce supply situation on the pork market is to be expected for 2020. Compared to the last "normal year 2018", the number of pigs at world level should be around 25% lower in 2020. In China alone, pork production declined from 54 to less than 35 million tons, ie 20 million tons are missing there. The total world trade in pork to date has only comprised 10 million tons. The EU supplied around 3.8 million t and the USA 2.85 million t . The Canadians exported 1.3 million t and Brazil has just managed 0.7 million t.This makes it clear that even increased export volumes will not be enough to meet Chinese needs within a year. An increase in imports of other types of meat will not be able to fully compensate. Despite all the Chinese efforts to restart pork production, it has to be said that the ASP epidemic has not yet stopped . Reconstruction - starting with the selection of gilts through the gestation / suckling period and fattening phase to the finished slaughter pig - takes more than a year . Setbacks must be expected due to the high risk of reinfection. 2020 is expected to be the lowest in Chinese pork production. Pork consumption in China is at the forefront of higher-value consumer goods.Therefore, despite the sharp rise in consumer prices, demand remains unbroken, even if not every need can be met. It can be assumed that all possibilities will be used to get the commodity in question. The entire world market is systematically used to meet Chinese import needs. This leads to high pig prices in all production areas. Since ASP-related production losses are also to be seen in other Asian countries , a demand-related price upswing will also arise from this side. However, these countries are nowhere near the Chinese dimensions, but are capable of exacerbating the situation in an already scarce supply situation . The EU has so far been the largest supplier with around 50% of Chinese imports . Germany and Spain were among the most important exporters. For 2020, however, pork production will decline in Germany, while there has been a strong increase in Spain.So far, the United States has had only 25% of Chinese imports. But several large US companies have already decided not to use growth promoters to participate in the expected large Chinese business. Even the Chinese punitive tariffs of around 70% on US imports do not pose an insurmountable problem. In the summer months of 2020, pork on the Chicago stock exchange was already trading at the equivalent of € 1.75 / kg . In China , the courses are between 5.50 to 6 € / kg . Brazil wants to exceed the export mark of 1 million t this year. The anticipated increase in exports to China with 250,000 to 300,000 t plays a decisive role in this. Brazilian exports of beef and poultry are much larger. Canada's production and export capacities can only be expanded to a limited extent. Russia is also waiting for export opportunities, but has not yet received approval from China.The year 2020 will lead to high pig prices worldwide due to the scarce supply situation in the pork market. The decisive cause remains the ASP-related loss of production in China, the after-effects of which will also be felt in the following years . One should not lose sight of the ASP threat here .
