Turnaround in China's pork production Around half of the world's pork is produced and consumed in China. In comparison, EU production is around 25% and the USA accounts for around 12% of global pig farming. The nationwide spread of African swine fever (ASF) in China led to a collapse in annual pork production in 2020 from the original almost 56 million t to an estimated 36 million t. The Chinese supply deficit was filled by increasing meat imports of all kinds, but only half covered. Pork imports doubled from 4 to 8.5 million t, beef imports tripled to 3 million t and chicken meat imports rose from 0.5 to almost 1 million t. Nevertheless, in 2020, up to the original consumption level of 56 million tonnes of pork, another 10 million tonnes were missing. The disproportion between supply and demand drove the Chinese producer prices from the usual converted 2 to 3 € / kg to over 6 € / kg pork and piglet prices up to 250 € per 25 kg animal. In the 1stIn the first half of 2021, Chinese pork production increased by almost 40% compared to the previous year to 47 million t. In connection with the slightly reduced imports, the supply was sufficient for the limited demand. The prices fell from over 5 € / kg to 2.20 € / kg. With high stabling prices and feed costs, the pig farmers were in the red; losses of up to 175 € / pig were achieved. The result was a rapid reduction in stocks, which exacerbated the price pressure. The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture set a target of 41 million sows instead of the previous 46 million. At the end of October 2021, the price trend was reversed. Within a week the price curve turned upwards. The supply pressure for domestic and foreign deliveries has decreased noticeably. On the relevant Dalian stock exchange, prices above € 3 / kg were traded again for the month of Jan 2022. The weeklong Chinese New Year festival Anf. February traditionally creates a high demand for pork. Experts estimate that 2022 will result in a further decline in Chinese pork production as a result of the reduction in the number of sows.The current decline in imports is expected to increase again slightly in the course of the coming year.
