Results of the pig census from November 3rd, 2020 - excess population in higher weight fattening pigs - reduction of the sow population - increasing piglet deficit. The cattle census of November 3, 2020 confirms an above-average number of higher-weight fattening pigs, which is also known as supply backlog. At the time of the count, the number of animals in the weight class over 110 kg LG was approx . 35% above the level from May 2020 or approx. 30% above the same month of November 2019. These animals were already slaughtered at the end of December 2020. The 80 to 110 kg LG weight class was 8% larger than in May 2020, but only slightly higher than in the same month of the previous year. With usual weight gains, this group of animals reached or exceeded the final fattening weight at the end of December 2020. For the coming months in the New Year 2021 , the weight group 50 to 80 kg LG should first be considered.In this case, a decrease of -0.2% compared to May 2020 or -3.86% compared to November 2019 can be observed. These animals are expected to be hooked in the months of January / February, 2021. In the weight category of young pigs under 50 kg , a decrease of -1.1% in relation to May 2020 t, compared to November 2019 a decrease of -3.57% was determined. These animals are expected in the months of February-March. Be ready for battle in 2021. Measured against the combined stock category of young pigs up to 80 kg, a noticeable reluctance can be observed at -1.37% when stabling young animals for fattening . This was particularly pronounced in Thuringia, Rhineland-Palatinate and Bavaria. The number of piglets decreased by -2.2% compared to May 2020. Compared to November 2019, however, an increase of almost 1% can be observed.Overall, a moderate decrease in the number of fattening pigs can be expected for the coming months of the new year . A total reduction of -4.5% compared to May 2020 and -5.4 % compared to the same month of November 2019 was determined for breeding pigs weighing 50 kg or more . That is almost 100,000 less sows. Roughly, a short-term decline in the number of piglets of around 2 million young animals can be derived from this. The decline in piglet production will be even more serious in the further course of 2021 if one takes into account the decline in the number of gilts of almost -10% . An increase in pig performance per sow can by no means compensate for this drop in numbers. The reduction in the number of sows was found in almost all federal states .Above-average decrease rates are found in Thuringia (-6.9%), Schleswig-Holstein (-6.8%), North Rhine-Westphalia (-5.9%), Hesse (-5.6%) and in Bavaria (-4.5 %). The decline in sow husbandry is predominantly associated with the abandonment of the farm, as can be seen from the reduced number of farms. Given current market and price developments, the Nov 2020 count can only be viewed as a stopover . The May 2021 census is expected to show a similar trend.
