Pig market in retrospect: falling EU production - China imports - strong US growth Starting in the spring of 2019, pig prices in Germany and the entire EU will rise by approx. € 1.50 / kg to the previous peak of € 2 / kg . At first glance, one would blame only the seasonal decline in the number of slaughter . However, this year the level was lower than in previous years. However, a decline in production in Germany or the EU alone could not have caused such a price jump, because the domestic market demand is too weak for that. The decisive factors were the increasing EU third country exports with Germany, Spain, Denmark and the Netherlands at the top. Exports to China alone reach almost the 2 million t mark, more than half of total exports.Although African swine fever (ASP) has been rampant in China since Aug 2018, imports only increased particularly sharply in the second half of 2019 . Until then, part of the demand had been met by reducing the number of Chinese pigs and releasing the stocks. The price increases of July-19 with approx. € 3 / kg on top prices of € 6.50 / kg at the end of November 2019. At first glance, it is surprising to find that pig prices in the US are below the € 1 / kg mark in autumn 2019. The reason is the strong expansion of the US pig population by approx. 25% in the past 5 years. The additional pork was mainly consumed in their own country, but is now reaching saturation limits. Rising exports to Mexico and some Asian import markets brought limited relief.Deliveries to China are limited by the widespread use of growth promoters and the high Chinese punitive tariffs . While the EU has recently delivered 250,000 t of pork to China every month , the United States has only 60,000 t / month . Nevertheless, the Americans are full of expectations for the year 2020. Germany : The V price was reduced to 1.95 € / kg (-8 ct / kg) and fixed over the holidays for 21 days until 08 Jan 2020 .
