Conflicting estimates of the Russian grain harvest
The Russian Minister of agriculture Fyodorov surprised market experts with its forecast that Russia will expect a harvest of around 100 million tonnes. Thereby, the dryness in the Crimea games no major role. The Crimea is currently an experiment from the experience.
A number of market experts believe the official estimate of the Russian politician little justified. The relevant previews indicate there is an order of magnitude of 90 to 95 million tonnes.
The lower estimates are based on the below-average rainfall conditions in the 4 major winter wheat growing areas.
The rainfall are in the Southern District of around 10 to 15 mm below the normal values for the spring months. Partly, the ratings even among the critical numbers of the previous year. The Southern District delivers about 50% of the Russian winter wheat harvest.
Only 11% of W wheat are grown in the Volga region, but also considerable precipitation deficits are increasing.
The humidity conditions in the skimpy average are in the North Caucasian region with a share of 22%. This is also the central region with a market share of around 12%.
For the next few days until end of may will be further dryness. The temperatures above the 30 ° c mark. This leads to heat stress.
Only with beginning the 1st week of June shower draw on the weather forecasts, bring limited quantities of rain. This is not ensured, whether and to what extent all regions get enough moisture.
According to some agricultural meteorologists, good ground water reserves help to alleviate the drought. To what extent this is true, moreover the opinions current widely diverge.
