Despite a lack of rapeseed supply, there are no prospects for correspondingly high prices (increases). For several years, the worldwide rapeseed supply has not improved significantly. Stock levels in the current financial year are still below the level of 5 years ago. Nevertheless, rape prices did not exceed the 400 € / t mark. Currently, the level remains below the 380 € / t market. The forward rates on the stock exchanges show no appreciable rates of increase until the spring of 2019. The prospects for the coming rape year in Europe are not very promising due to the dryness-related bad sowing. It is repeatedly to expect a below-average harvest.How is this apparent contradiction to be resolved? The rapeseed oil competes with the two big market leaders, palm oil and soybean oil . Palm oil has an increasing market share of 35% and soybean oil of 28% . By contrast, rapeseed oil only has a market share of approx. 14% . The above-mentioned vegetable oils are largely interchangeable. The biggest competition is in the use sector for biodiesel production. The current market situation is currently characterized by rising palm and soybean oil production, with the result that increasing inventories build up in this area.The rising level of abundant supply is depressing palm and soybean oil prices. Only the transport costs from overseas ensure that the local rapeseed prices do not fall completely into the basement. Currently, a weak euro exchange rate supports rape courses because imported goods have to be imported at a high price. But even this development has its limits, because the oil mills prefer to buy cheap US soybeans in order to utilize their capacities. The market forecasts for soy and palm oil are predicting that the two market leaders will have a higher than average supply worldwide until well into the next year . Therefore, price improvements in this sector can hardly be expected.Despite an expected weak rapeseed harvest in 2019, experience shows that there is little to suggest that prices will rise significantly in the future. However, market risks should not be lost for trade policy reasons alone.
