Updated EU crop estimates by COCERAL and EU-COM
The EU Commission and the European Federation of Grain and Oilseed Traders updated their estimates for the EU grain harvest at the turn of the month. Different collection methods yield 285 million tonnes in the case of the EU-COM and 281 million in the case of COCERAL . In both cases, a decline of 6.5% compared to the previous year is determined.
The cereal consumption of 286.5 million tonnes will not be covered by current production in 2018/19, reducing inventories from 47 to 39.7 million tonnes .
The largest loss of production was observed with 15% wheat, rye and triticale . The rest of the crops got away a little easier. Reduced initial stocks and declining production puts the barley brand t in a bottleneck supply.
Exports are expected to fall further from 33 to 31 million tonnes, according to the EU Commission. Contributing to this is the low EU harvest and the still strong competition from the Black Sea area. On the other hand, the necessary maize imports reach the order of 18.5 million t. The net export of E U will be significantly lower in 2018/19.
The individual EU Member States were affected differently by unfavorable growth conditions.In general, the western and northern countries have recorded above average bad harvests. The area extends on GB, F, BR.-D to Poland. By contrast, Spain, Italy and the countries of southeastern Europe have delivered good average results .
For Germany, COCERAL calculates a decline in the grain harvest by 18%. The German corn crop is downgraded by the umbrella organization from last year's 4.5 to 2.7 million tonnes this year, or by 40% .
The wheat prices on the Paris stock exchange have been oriented around the 200 € / t mark for weeks. For the first months of 2019, rising prices are expected.
