Agricultural Outlook Forum: US milk production: tight margins in the short term, good market and price prospects in the medium term At the 95th Agricultural Outlook Forum of the US Department of Agriculture at the end of February 2019, the US dairy market was analyzed alongside other agricultural markets and forecasts for the year 2019 / 20 and following delivered. Under the motto "Growing locally, selling globally" , the pronounced export significance of the US agricultural market was emphasized. The US dairy market has risen steadily in recent years. For the year 2019, the mark of 100 million tons of milk production is to be achieved. This puts US cow milk production in second place in the world. The increase in production is due to a slight increase in cow numbers , but mainly due to increasing milk production to meanwhile 10,500 kg per cow and year. For comparison, the EU, the world's largest production area, does not reach 7,000 kg / cow. The overproduction has been consumed mainly in the own country.Cheese consumption now reaches its own production. Imports and exports relate to the exchange of cheese specialties . The US net export is only 180,000 tons per year. In the case of the butter market , on average over the years, there is largely a balance between domestic production and consumption. By contrast, in the case of skimmed milk powder (SMP), there is a significant export surplus of 695,000 tonnes or 66% of production. This makes the US, with 895,000 t after the EU, one of the leading exporters in this market sector. Both together deny approx . 64% of world trade with MMP. Whole milk powder is of secondary importance in the USA. The low production of 54,000 tonnes is almost completely consumed domestically. By comparison, of the 740,000 t of production in the EU, approx. 370,000 t exported. For 2019 , a significant reduction in production growth to 1.2% is expected.Consumption should increase by 1.7% when converted to milk fat basis. Exports are severely hampered by Mexico's import duties as a countermeasure to US steel and aluminum tariffs. On an MMP basis , exports are expected to fall by 1% . In a medium-term forecast until the year 2028, the USDA expects a continuation of the previous average growth rates. With continued rising milk yield and a small increase in cow numbers, US dairy production is rising. According to the forecasts, the consumption trend should increase less strongly. There are more opportunities for export . The US milk prices should rise to 2028 to the equivalent of 37 € cents / kg . The pick-up was driven by rising butter prices as a result of persistently high global demand, while MMP prices are expected to be more subdued.Despite all reservations about the uncertainties of such a forecast, a positive underlying mood of a growth market is assumed. For the EU, the EU-KOM has already made a similar prediction some time ago .
