USDA: higher oilseed supply worldwide - high US soybeans - oilseed rape remains scarce In the latest issue of April-19, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) rated global oilseed coverage 2018/19 higher than in the previous month. The increase in production is higher than the increase in consumption. The final stocks rise by almost 7%. Soya holds the overwhelming share of the oilseeds business with 60%. The production 2018/19 should, according to investigations by the USDA approx. 360 million tonnes. The US harvest in the autumn of 2018 is estimated at the record level of 123.6 million t. The current Brazilian harvest estimates the USDA at 117 million t much lower than the previous year's best result. Argentina only has an average of 55 million t. With a reduced 88 million tonnes, China is at the forefront of consumer areas. The US-China trade dispute and African swine fever have contributed to a reduction. The usual annual increase of 2 to 3 million t per year does not take place. The Chinese boycott of US soy deliveries has resulted in US final stocks quintupling from previously common averages.The increased US inventories are a major cause of persistent low price levels. In the vegetable oils sector, the second-market leader's high palm oil inventories are creating further price pressure in this market. Although the quantities produced in Malaysia and Indonesia, which account for almost 90%, have exceeded their seasonal peak in the autumn, the previous export volumes have not risen to the same extent. However, for the remainder of the year, the USDA expects significant inventory reductions in Indonesia, while in Malaysia, average final stocks are predicted. The global rapeseed harvest estimated the USDA at 72.3 million t. In Canada, the harvest should amount to 21.1 million t. For the EU, the USDA is assuming the EU-COM estimate of a reduced 19.6 million tonnes. In the previous year, the EU result was 22.1 million t. Worldwide rapeseed consumption, at 71.1 million, is only just below the annual production. The largest consumer with 24.1 million tonnes is the EU, which relies on 4.5 million tonnes of imports. China, with a consumption volume of 17.55 million tonnes, is expected to import 4.4 million tonnes of oilseed rape. The current political tensions surrounding the arrest of a Chinese finance chief in Canada could still shake the numbers.For the other oilseeds, no significant corrections have been identified which could have a significant impact on pricing. Chicago's soybean stock prices responded only moderately to a level of 902.2 US cents / bu, or just under 30 € / dd, that had risen for several days. The palm oil courses are still prone to weakness. The rape prices in Paris are trading around the 360.75 € / t guide line for the front month of May 2019. Rising prices are signaled for the autumn / winter months.
